Mohave.net

Mohave.net
Discussing Mohave County Arizona Housing Market and other topics

Fires aren’t expected to dampen home sales

October 27th, 2007

But experts see decline ahead in harder hit areas

By Lori Weisberg and Roger ShowleySTAFF WRITERS
October 27, 2007

San Diego County’s already fragile real estate market should feel little ill effect from the week’s widespread wildfires, but some of the harder hit communities can expect a dip in home sales in the coming months, housing experts say.

While housing sales countywide remain at record lows amid sharply rising foreclosures, it’s unlikely that the loss of at least 1,400 homes, as high as that figure sounds, will dampen a market that logs thousands of sales each month, said analyst John Karevoll of DataQuick Information Systems.

“We’ve done literally dozens of studies on fires and earthquakes and floods and hurricanes, looking at their impacts on the market, and the trend is always that these events don’t mean much except in the short term in deferring some sales activity,” said Karevoll, who was evacuated from his home in Running Springs near Lake Arrowhead, where hundreds of homes were destroyed.

In the fire-damaged areas, “I expect much lower sales counts for the next two to six months, and then there will be a period of time where the market reverts to what it was doing before but plays some catch-up.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071027/news_1b27real.html

Foreclosures

October 26th, 2007

I think I’ll play with the foreclosure subject today. If you are planning on purchasing in Kingman or Mohave County, you need to do as much research as you can and foreclosures are an important part of the current market. I’ll address the importance of this further down. I’ll also add a couple of permanent links to our link section for foreclosure sites.

The Countrywide link also includes several other links on the left side of the page that go to other bank reo sites. All of the bank sites include addresses of the properties.

The foreclosure.com site is a pay site and does not include addresses without a subscription. However, the preforeclosures include a owner name and street name and using those the address can be looked up on the Mohave county tax accessor site.

The bank owned properties have added another “just pick a number” pricing level to an already “just pick a number” owner pricing level. If you don’t do the research yourself, you are liable to buy a home that is as much as 100k more than another nearly identical house. I have found that the realtors don’t seem to be following the foreclosure market and I would recommend doing your own research and not just blindly accepting your realtors word.

This is difficult to do with the information that the Mohave MLS supplies. Without addresses you are at the mercy of what the realtors choose to tell you about, unless you do your own research. You cannot just see a property on realtor.com and see that it is in your area of interest and contact the realtor.

I am lucky that I have access to a site that supplies the addresses for mls properties. It is a site that my realtor subscribes her buyers to. You can find out more by contacting either Sandy or Cecelia, whose sites are in the links on the right hand side. Both are very good at their jobs, not pushy sales types. They are just out to help you find and purchase a home without pressure. Sandy will help you find a home anywhere in Mohave County and will send you an email with each new listing that meets your criteria. Cecelia is a mortgage banker who can help you with a mortgage and also sends emails out with current interest and lending news.

The Mission Hills Estates subdivision is one that I can use to point out why knowledge is very important in this market. This subdivision was built in the spring of 2006. The houses are on 4000′+ lots. They are mostly 1869′+/- houses with some 1538′+/- floorplans. The original homes were priced from 239,000 to 299,000. A few of the smaller houses sold at the beginning. The builders apparently then rented out many of the remaining homes and the majority of the subdivision is still either rented or vacant. A California investor also purchased 5 of the larger homes for 289,000 in the summer of 2006.

Now fast forward to 2007. At least three of the smaller homes went into foreclosure and are now bank owned. Another two of the larger homes also went into foreclosure. All five of the investor homes were put on the market for 199,900 (90,000) less than he paid. None of them were sold even at the lower price and they have gone into foreclosure. Now here is where the bizarre pricing comes in.

Even though there were 1869′ homes for sale for 199,900, one of the 1538′ bank owned properties was originally priced by the bank at 229,000. They have since lowered it to 193,900. And as the 1869′ homes go through foreclosure and become bank owned, the banks are listing them at a higher price than the owner listing.

There are six homes for sale as of today’s listings. Two of the 1538′ homes are 193,9000 and 195,500. The four 1869′ homes are priced at 197,500, 199,900, 219,900, and 225,900. These houses are all the same, the two less expensive ones have never been lived in. The two more expensive ones may have been rentals.

Then we have the Rhodes Villas, another 69 home subdivision originally built and sold in late 2005. Nearly all were purchased by speculators and as they were completed were put back on the market for resale at an inflated price. A few were flipped for a profit in early 2006, but most owners ended up renting the homes out. By late 2006/early 2007, several were again put on the market. Some were priced at what they had paid, some were priced higher and some were priced lower. No real rhyme or reason to the “just pick a number” pricing.

Now fast forward to 2007. One of the original models was sold originally for 364,275 in 2005. The model was priced at about 140,000 above what the base prices were. The home went into foreclosure and is now bank owned. The bank has priced it at 199,000, it has 2192′ and as of yet it has not sold. It has been listed for about 1.5 months. The second model home is still apparently owned by the original owner and may be rented. The third and final model home is owned by Rhodes and shows an original price of 299,824. It is currently on the market for 309,724 and has 1866′. The original non-model homes sold for 181, 825 to 255,875, depending on the upgrades added. The majority sold for around 181-205. A few are currently on the market, some priced at less than they paid in 2005.

There are many houses on the market priced at less than the current owners paid in 2005/2006. A house on our block is bank owned and priced at only $900. more than the last owner paid in 12/2004 and it has been on the market since August 8th.

As more and more foreclosures come on the market, opportunities to purchase homes for a reasonable amount should increase. The builder discounts and foreclosures should force the resale home prices down. Builders are continuing to grade and build homes, even as hundreds sit unsold on the market. Many home prices here doubled and tripled between late 2004 and early 2005 for no fundamental based reason. Lot prices went up as much as 20 times during the same period. The prices increased mainly due to a credit bubble and a frenzy of speculative buying. Prices are falling across the country and despite what the realtors tell you, it is not “different” in Mohave County.

If you are going to buy, do your own research. Do not depend on the advise of someone who’s pay check depends on your purchase. Make sure you can afford the payments and don’t depend on appreciation in the near future.

Drought Monitor

October 26th, 2007

I’ve added a link on the right side of the page to an Arizona Drought Monitor. You can also get to other states from that page by clicking on the “return to US drought monitor” on the left top corner of the Arizona page.

Phoenix Flippers In Trouble

October 25th, 2007

This blogger site has losses on specific houses shown. Each house shows the previous sales price and the current listing price. The blogger who recently started this site has been running a Sacramento Calif. Flipper loss site for years and decided to put Phoenix info on a new site.

http://phoenixflippers.blogspot.com/

Coyote Springs

October 24th, 2007

This is an interesting Q&A with the developer of Coyote Springs, a huge subdivision north of Las Vegas.

http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/10/19/qanda.html

Arizona Housing Links

October 24th, 2007

October 21, 2007
Homebuilders offer incentives, discounts
Misty Williams, Tribune

http://www.tribunehomefinder.com/story/100085

**********

New-home market flooded on outskirts as builders, owners compete
By Christie Smythe and Lourdes Medrano
Arizona DAily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 10.21.2007

When the market was at its peak, some of the hottest areas were northwest, southeast and southwest of the city. But now, buyers no longer line up to buy homes in outlying subdivisions. Instead, builders slash prices, pack on incentives and still are left with unsold spec homes and empty lots.

In many cases, homeowners trying to sell properties in newer developments are finding they can’t compete with builders’ rock-bottom prices.

Tucson housing market consultant John Strobeck, of Bright Future Business Consultants, declined to comment for this story. But previously, in describing his monthly sales report, the Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, Strobeck said the market is suffering from an oversupply of both new and resale homes, and conditions might not improve until 2010.

http://www.azstarnet.com/dailystar/207396

**********

Many Valley homeowners pressured or tricked into bad loans, experts say
Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Oct. 21, 2007 12:00 AM

Arizona is second only to Nevada for subprime loans, and the mortgage industry is bleeding billions of dollars from losses on those types of loans. Interest rates on the biggest block of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages are set to climb by the end of the year, prompting market watchers to predict the largest jump in foreclosures to happen in early 2008.

Loose lending guidelines and speculators fueled the housing boom in 2004 and 2005.

Home prices across metropolitan Phoenix shot up 50 percent because of speculator-driven bidding wars. With little regulation in Arizona’s mortgage industry, loan officers flocked to the state offering more creative, and often riskier, financing to any buyer who couldn’t otherwise afford the rising home prices.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/1021bad-loans1021.html

Monthly ARM Reset Schedule

October 23rd, 2007

This chart shows that the majority of the loan resets don’t happen until Jan-June 2008.

http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/resetbigchart.gif

Its Credit and its Crunchy

October 22nd, 2007

A funny video from the UK regarding the Northern Rock Bank run and the mortgage securitization business.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br8mOmH9frE

And another British video on subprime loans

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5VeNwG3xms&NR=1

Tucson – Analyst: Housing slowdown will linger until 2010

October 19th, 2007

http://www.azstarnet.com/business/206856

Expects high inventory, sales slide will delay local recovery until 2010
By Christie Smythe
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 10.18.2007

A Tucson housing market analyst is projecting a much deeper, longer slowdown than earlier anticipated.

In his monthly Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, analyst John Strobeck said it might not recover until 2010 if inventory levels remain high and the sales pace stays the same.

“It will be at least that long, maybe longer,” he said in a phone interview.

Hillary! Uncensored – Banned By The Media

October 18th, 2007

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7007109937779036019

The Roughcut Trailer for- Hillary!Uncensored-the Documentary Using Exclusive Home Videos of Hillary to Expose the Illegalities that Elected Hillary to the Senate and the Obstructions of Justice That Keep Her There-

« Previous Entries